The Mongolian Mindset on Uncertainty: Insights for Learning
Dr Saranzaya Manalsuren is a Senior Lecturer at LSBU Business School, London South Bank University. Her research focuses on themes related to sustainable and equitable managerial practices, supporting the equality, diversity, and inclusion agenda, emotional and cultural intelligence and leadership.
The latest IMF report highlights a surge in global uncertainty attributed to a myriad of factors, including Brexit, US-China trade tensions, the pandemic, and ongoing conflicts. This heightened uncertainty permeates various spheres, including science, technology, society, geopolitics, and global business. It’s not a recent development but rather the culmination of years of complex dynamics. Efforts to mitigate these tensions have been a focal point at the macro level. However, at the societal level, navigating uncertainty has often been viewed negatively despite its inevitability amidst multifaceted changes. Understanding the root causes of uncertainty is crucial, as is our capacity to perceive and adapt to it while shaping the future through continuous preparation and foresight.
Changing our mindset towards uncertainty, the case of Mongolia, a country described as ‘prone to political and economic shocks’ (Fritz, 2008: 2), may provide a useful example of a business environment characterised by uncertainty – not in extreme terms, as in the case of countries characterised, for example, by a high risk of war, but with regard to a mindset influenced by traditional nomadic culture, a fast-changing political situation, uncertain economic conditions and unreliable institutional and technological infrastructure.
Mongolia has embraced the nomadic lifestyle ever since the early inhabitants of the steppes and the first state Hunnu people (also known as Xionghnu or Huns) were first recorded in 209 BC. With livestock and herding accounting for about twenty per cent of the current GDP and employing about one million people, which is one-third of the entire population, Mongolia is still one of the truly nomadic countries of the world. Scholars agree that nomadism is the key cultural and social identity of Mongolia. Although their definition of nomadism differs, there is common agreement on pastoral life, kinship and free movement. Scholars (e.g., Humphrey and Sneath, 1999) noted that nomadism plays an important role in cultural values and influences people’s actions and philosophies, even if a sedentary lifestyle has been adopted.
The country held its first democratic elections in 1990 after being ruled by a communist party for nearly seven decades. Entering a market economy, engaging in privatisation processes, and adopting a multi-party system brought turbulent times. The political system of Mongolia, underpinned by democratic principles, has suffered from a lack of stability throughout the capitalist transition period. Between 1992 and 2017, the country had fifteen different government cabinets, each lasting an average of one and a half years. Between 2004 and 2017, no Mongolian prime minister completed a four-year term. The uncertainty of the legal and political environment, marked by the amendment of a foreign direct investment law in 2012, along with the appointment of three prime ministers during one four-year term between 2012-2016, resulted in a sharp decline in both FDI and trust in local government. The period between 2012 and 2015 was the worst-performing period for FDI in Mongolia, in which FDI plummeted by 85% compared to 2011, when it claimed the world’s fastest-growing economy, with 17.5% GDP growth. The confluence of the pandemic aftermath and China’s zero-Covid policy has dealt a significant blow to Mongolia’s already fragile economy. Additionally, the effects of the war in Ukraine have further exacerbated inflationary pressures. Consequently, the economic outlook remains uncertain and heavily reliant on China for stability. Predicted growth, initially projected at 6%, has now been revised down to 4% for 2024, compared to the previous year’s 7%. This downward revision can largely be attributed to Mongolia grappling with one of the harshest winters in recent memory.
Social welfare and infrastructure have not improved much in the past decade. The scale of migration from rural to urban areas has increased dramatically, with 60% of the city population lacking access to the centralised water and sewerage system. Furthermore, air pollution has increased to more than one hundred times the maximum daily average recommended as safe by the World Health Organization. Unequal access to health and education systems and the growing disparity between the rich and the poor have created mistrust between the government and civil society. Moreover, mismanagement and the lack of transparency of fiscal revenues and accountability within political parties have increased public frustration and dissatisfaction with government institutions. Corruption in the public sector and political party-driven appointments within government agencies has sparked protests from civil society and raised questions about the status of democracy in Mongolia.
The nation’s disillusionment with the country’s authorities, in light of the political instability post-1990, needs to be considered in the context of traditional Mongolian values, where ethical conduct and trust in interpersonal relationships are considered the foundation of society. Over the centuries, Mongolians have upheld a doctrine of wisdom associated with honesty, loyalty, solidarity, and procedural and distributional justice. Albeit hierarchical, Mongolian culture is egalitarian: people expect power to be centralised, but leaders’ responsibility is to unify people’s efforts towards overcoming adversity.
The context of uncertainty in Mongolia raises the question of how Mongolians deal with this volatile situation in their everyday life, particularly how they perceive uncertainty and navigate through it.
The subsequent content is drawn from an academic journal article titled ‘Context-specific Understandings of Uncertainty: A Focus on People Management Practices in Mongolia’. This article was co-authored with Dr Marina Michalski, Professor Martyna Śliwa, and myself, and was published in The International Human Resource Management Journal in 2020.
The general aspects of the Mongolian mindset about uncertainty
The findings of an empirical study with forty-one local managers, including those who worked during the socialist era, the younger generation with Western education, and expatriates who lived in Mongolia for over five years, revealed four underlying themes concerning an understanding and expectation of uncertainty and how to work and manage within a volatile environment.
The first referred to the normalisation of uncertainty. Mongolians believe that uncertainty is natural and that it is in the nature of things to change constantly. There was a statement that ‘the only certainty is uncertainty’, which impacted what Mongolians consider normal, how they frame the notion of uncertainty, and how everyday routines and people management practices evolve. For instance, uncertainty meant less stress in business-related contexts since ‘people have very relaxed attitudes towards last minute changes and often see [change] as a very normal thing to happen’.
The second element was understanding uncertainty as normal, as something that Mongolians are ‘used to’. This normalisation of uncertainty was explained with reference to both the contemporary circumstances of socioeconomic transition and the traditional nomadic Mongolian way of life. The nomadic lifestyle in Mongolia relies heavily on nature, with locals adept at adapting to seasonal changes and the conditions of their livestock. They are prepared to face any challenge posed by external factors, leveraging their deep understanding of the environment.
The third element highlighted a positive framing of uncertainty, whereby uncertainty was considered a source of opportunities rather than chaos and undesired instability. A statement such as ‘You’d never have the same [sic] day in UB. There are lots of changes happening here, and yes it brings much uncertainties, but it also brings many opportunities, too.’ echoes a theoretical view that a regular exposure to the same type of stimuli leads to a ‘proficiency of habituated action’. Having been exposed to the uncertainty of change as a community – across the centuries as a nomadic population and throughout economic and political upheaval phases – Mongolians value uncertainty and challenging situations and have developed relatively well-institutionalised competencies and orientations to deal with it.
The fourth element of the Mongolian mindset about uncertainty was an outcome of combining the first three elements: a shared emphasis on the importance of flexibility in adapting to changing circumstances. Flexibility emerged as a typical Mongolian response in the face of uncertainty, as illustrated in the comment about Mongolians being ‘very good at dealing with uncertain situations and able to think on their feet’. As such, uncertainty came hand-in-hand with flexibility: the way Mongolians react to unexpected change and make decisions is supported by a repertoire of resources that make them well-adapted to uncertain environments.
The acknowledgement of the ability to respond to changes and crises was coupled with the recognition that Mongolian solutions tended to be temporary, with a ‘fluid’ approach to time: plans are only made for ‘a short-term period rather than the longer future’, and ‘nothing happens on scheduled time’, and this statement fits well with an institutional environment characterised by low levels of trust in formal regulatory, legal and political institutions.
In light of the insights from the Mongolian mindset on uncertainty, there is an opportunity for us to rethink our approach. Could we embrace a perspective where uncertainty is seen as a natural phenomenon offering numerous opportunities for growth? Perhaps fostering flexibility and resilience, along with embracing the inevitability of mistakes, could lead to positive transformations. Adopting a fluid approach with optimism during instability and dedicating our efforts to exploring new avenues amidst uncertainty may pave the way for innovative solutions and advances.
The opinions expressed are those of the contributor, not of the RSAA.