An online panel discussion with Dr Shira Efron, Professor Alain Dieckhoff and Dr Ehud Eiran moderated by Sir Tom Phillips KCMG, 19 October 2026 at 18:00 Bst

On 27 October 2026, Israelis go to the polls for the first time since the October 7 attacks – closing out the only full Knesset term in nearly four decades. The vote comes at an extraordinary juncture: a Gaza ceasefire that remains only partially implemented, contested questions over Hamas’s disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, the aftermath of the 2026 Iran war, a changed relationship with a post-Assad Syria, and a US administration under Trump pushing its own regional peace framework. The region itself is also realigning – Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s new Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signals a shifting balance of power that Israel’s next government will have to navigate. Domestically, Netanyahu faces the most serious challenge to his leadership in years, with new centrist alternatives emerging and the country more polarised than at almost any point in its history.

This panel brings together experts to examine what’s actually at stake on 27 October – for Israeli politics, for the future of Gaza and the wider ceasefire process, and for Israel’s relationships with Washington and its neighbours, old and new. What would a change of government mean in practice? What happens to the peace process regardless of who wins? And how does Israel position itself in a region where new blocs are forming around it?

Shira Efron is RAND’s Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy. A leading expert in Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs, Efron brings two decades of experience in policy analysis and research, having previously led RAND’s Israel Program from 2016 to 2022. Most recently, Efron served as Director of Research and a Senior Fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. She has advised Israel’s Ministry of Defense and its National Security Council and co-chaired the subgroup on regional cooperation for Israel’s president’s climate forum. She has also held roles at the Center for American Progress, the Middle East Institute, and the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, and was a consultant for the United Nations Country Team in Jerusalem, where she focused on Gaza.

Alain Dieckhoff is a Senior Research Fellow at the French National Centre for Scientific Research. He teaches courses at Sciences Po, and is a co-founder of the Observatoire International du Religieux. He is a member of the editorial boards of Politique et Sociétés, Questions Internationales and the Journal of Modern Jewish Studies. He is a member of the Advisory Council of the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies and is an International Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences of the Royal Society of Canada.

His main field of research is the politics and society of Israel. He has also undertaken in-depth research on the transformations of contemporary nationalism, on populism and on the relationships between politics and religion.

Ehud Eiran is Chair of the Department of International Relations at the University of Haifa and also a teacher in Israel’s National Security College. He has held research appointments at Harvard Law School, Harvard’s Kennedy School, and Brandeis University and was a visiting lecturer in the Department of Political Science at MIT. Prior to his academic career, Eiran held a number of positions in the Israeli civil service including clerking for two Attorney Generals, and as an Assistant to the Prime Minister’s Foreign Policy Advisor. He has published numerous analytical pieces in popular and scholarly outlets and is interested in the practical and theoretical aspects of international conflict and conflict resolution.

Moderator

In his main career as a British diplomat, Tom’s postings included serving as Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2010-12), as Ambassador to Israel (2006-10), and as High Commissioner to Uganda (2000-02).

Since retirement from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 2012, his jobs have included International Adviser to the Prince of Wales’ International Sustainability Unit, Commandant of the UK Ministry of Defence’s Royal College of Defence Studies, Director of the Centre for the Study of Modern Slavery at St Mary’s University Twickenham, and lecturer at the Institut Catholique de Vendée.

His publications include several articles on the Middle East.