Iran’s new leader is a dark horse
James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies
The jury is out on Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader. Judged by his track record, his appointment does not bode well for Iran or for a quick end to the war.
His rise signals defiance, resilience, regime cohesion, and consistency, rather than a move toward a hereditary system. It also carries significant religious symbolism. Mr Khamenei is the son of a leader viewed by many as a martyr – killed by enemy forces – evoking the example of Hussein ibn Ali, son of Ali ibn Abi Talib, who died in the Battle of Karbala in 680 CE. Shiites commemorate Hussein’s death annually as an enduring symbol of resistance against injustice and tyranny.
The killing of Ali Khamenei and US President Donald Trump’s insistence that he would have a say in the appointment of Iran’s next Supreme Leader – along with his warning that Mr Khamenei would be “unacceptable” – only served to reinforce his position as a frontrunner. Long touted as a potential successor, he has never held public office but served behind the scenes as his father’s powerful gatekeeper and political broker. This experience means he is likely to consolidate power quickly and assert control over the Islamic Republic’s system.
Many associate Mr Khamenei with repeated crackdowns on anti-government protests, beginning with demonstrations in 2009 against an allegedly fraudulent presidential election, and most recently the brutal repression of protests in January. Even so, the 56-year-old remains largely a dark horse, rarely appearing in public.
Perceived as a hardliner with close ties to Iran’s clerical class and security and military establishment – including the IRGC – his appointment marks a generational shift in Iran’s senior leadership. While loyal to the Islamic Republic, many in the next generation are perceived as more pragmatic than the old guard represented by Ali Khamenei. With Iranians and the world waiting for Mr Khamenei’s first address, his initial statements are likely to suggest little, if any, change: defiance, resilience, resistance, unity, and consistency will be the guiding motto.
Yet if the history of the Middle East offers lessons, hardliners, rather than moderates, often prove the most credible in embracing compromise. It was Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s founder, who accepted the “poison” of a ceasefire in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. Similarly, hardline Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin made peace with Egypt, while Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat compromised with acceptance of a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“If there is anyone who could move toward some sort of de-escalation with the United States, it is him – any other person would face backlash from the ruling class and conservatives. He intends to bring structural change,” said Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mr Khamenei.
That said, his survival is far from guaranteed. Israel has vowed to target whoever succeeds Ali Khamenei, making Mr Khamenei’s longevity a litmus test of US and Israeli intelligence penetration in Iran. As a man with a target on his back, his first moves – and whether he can endure the pressures of leadership – will determine not only the future of the Islamic Republic but the potential for a shift in its relations with the United States and the wider world.
James M Dorsey is the Associate Editor of WhoWhatWhy, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey. He is also a member of the International Editorial Advisory Board of the RSAA’s journal, Asian Affairs.
*title image attribution – Tasnim News Agency
The opinions expressed are those of the contributor, not necessarily of the RSAA.
