Nuclear Diplomacy, Instability and the Survival of the Islamic Republic
An online panel discussion with Professor Ali Ansari, Dr Banafsheh Keynoush and Holly Dagres. Guest moderated by Sir Richard Dalton KCMG
23 October 2025 14.00 BST
From our series Power, Legitimacy and Influence: the Future of Asia
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This panel discussion is part of our new series Power, Legitimacy and Influence: the Future of Asia. The series will run over two years exploring six long-standing regimes in Asia that have had and continue to have a huge influence outside their own borders, shaping the region and its trajectory. It will consider their leadership, the sources of their legitimacy and their guiding doctrine in order to gain an insight into what the future of Asia might look like.
In the second event of this series, we will examine the Islamic Republic of Iran and its position in the Middle East, particularly in light of Israeli attacks on Iranian proxies in the region over the past two years, the regional instability caused by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the collapse of the Assad regime, a key ally of Iran.
The recent twelve day war between Israel and Iran and the US strikes against Iranian nuclear sites have also added a new layer of complexity and instability to the regimes position. The event will consider how the development of the Islamic Republic, its domestic politics and the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei have led Iran to this point and what recent developments might mean for the future of the Islamic Republic.
Ali Ansari is a Professor of Iranian History and Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, he is a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and President of the British Institute for Persian Studies. He has authored several books on Iran including The Politics of Nationalism in Modern Iran, Confronting Iran: The Failure of US Policy and the Roots of Mistrust, Modern Iran since 1921: the Pahlavis and After and Iran, Islam & Democracy – The Politics of Managing Change.
Dr Banafsheh Keynoush is an international geopolitical consultant, an independent scholar of international politics and Middle East studies, and an author. Her consulting work includes high-stakes advisory and analytical work for the public sector, international organisations, national and international policy centres, and private companies. Her latest book is The World Powers and Iran: Before, During and After the Nuclear Deal and she co-authored The Abraham Accords: National Security, Regional Order and Popular Representation.
Holly Dagres is an Iranian-American analyst and commentator on the Middle East specialising on Iran with an emphasis on the intersection of security and human rights. She is curator of The Iranist – a popular newsletter on all things Iran read widely by policymakers from the White House to Whitehall. Holly is currently a security fellow with the Truman National Security Project as well as a member of the Women’s Foreign Policy Group and the Iranian American Women Foundation.
Guest Host
Sir Richard Dalton KCMG spent thirty-six years in HM Diplomatic Service during which time he was UK Consul General in Jerusalem (1993-97), where he was responsible for dealings with the Palestinian Authority after the signing of the Oslo Accords. In 1999, he re-established UK diplomatic relations with Libya, becoming the first Ambassador to Tripoli for 17 years, and between 2002-06 he was UK Ambassador in Tehran, playing a part in European negotiations with Iran. Since his retirement from front-line diplomacy, Sir Richard has been a frequent commentator on Iran and its foreign relations. He spent nine years (2007-16) as an Associate Fellow with the Middle East Programme at Chatham House where he co-wrote the research paper Iran: Breaking the Nuclear Deadlock. More recently, between 2015-21, Sir Richard was the President of the British-Iranian Chamber of Commerce.
