28 May 2026 – Succession and Secrecy: Intelligence on Mao Zedong and Kim Il-sung

Description

The talk will look at major misreadings of China’s Cultural Revolution and elite politics, as well as persistent uncertainty over leadership succession in North Korea, including the rise of Kim Jong-il. Across both cases, it highlights how intelligence assessments were shaped as much by institutional culture and analytical habits as by the information available on the ground. The result is a wider reflection on how secrecy, distance, and preconceptions can shape understanding of complex political systems – and why these Cold War lessons still resonate today.