10 December 2025 – Syria: Post-Assad

Description

Twelve months ago, following thirteen years of civil war, the then rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) launched a lightening offensive which saw the group take control of huge swathes of Syrian territory, ultimately leading to the capture of the capital city, Damascus, and the fleeing of long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad, ending fifty-four years of Assad family rule.

Shortly after the fall of Assad, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa became the de facto leader of Syria and in January 2025 was appointed President of the Syrian Transitional Government. Since then, Syria has seen the dissolution and merger of multiple rebel factions into the transitional government’s Ministry of Defence, the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with many regional and global powers, the removal of the Ba’athist era constitution, the signing of an interim constitution and establishment of a People’s Assembly to draft a new permanent constitution and the lifting of sanctions by a number of Western governments, most notably the US and UK. However, despite these positive steps and the promise of transitional justice and democracy to come, the country still faces huge challenges.

Continued violent clashes, airstrikes and military incursions by the Israeli Defence Force, a severe humanitarian crisis and a broken economy all pose significant challenges for al-Sharaa and the Transitional Government. This lecture will explore what has happened since the fall of Assad and consider what Syria’s future might look like.