Mongolia’s Upcoming Elections: a Turning Point?
Bolor Lkhaajav is an international relations researcher and writer
Over the last decade, Mongolia has experienced tremendous political, economic, and social transformation. The 2024 parliamentary election will be a turning point in Mongolia’s democracy, governance, and how Ulaanbaatar engages the world in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.
The 2024 parliamentary election will be one of the most significant elections in modern Mongolia’s history. Since the establishment of Mongolia’s democratic constitution in 1992, the parliament has had seventy-six members, the majority of the time dominated by two major political parties, the Democratic Party (DP) and the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). In May 2023, the parliament of Mongolia passed a constitutional reform that enlarged its legislative branch to one hundred and twenty six elected members. This is the first time Mongolia’s legislative branch has aimed to gain more power but through democratic legitimacy. With the parliamentary election coming up next month, political parties have opportunities to increase civic engagement, address social issues, and tackle some of the emerging challenges hindering the country’s development.
This year’s election will be conducted with a mixed electoral system, with seventy-eight seats being fought on the basis of first-past-the-post voting and forty-eight through proportional representation (PR). The new PR seats provide hope and a greater chance for new parties, coalitions and independent candidates to take part in Mongolia’s political life.
Early this year, the government made changes to Mongolia’s election law by merging electoral districts, which reduced their number from twenty-six to thirteen, and shortening the campaign period to two weeks. The Mongolian General Election Committee officially registered twenty-three political parties and two coalitions to run campaigns across the newly merged thirteen electoral voter districts. As a result, this year’s election will be more focused on regional development versus individual provinces or “aimags.” The merging of electoral voter districts has the potential to remove regionalism and a certain level of loyalty to one specific aimag or district.
However, these changes may also pose some challenges to new parties and candidates. Political commentators have voiced their concerns over “the most expensive election” to date which has discouraged many candidates from running due to the financial constraints. Another notable challenge is that newer candidates will still have a difficult time swinging voters from the two traditional parties in certain regions.
Based on the assessment of the released candidate lists, the new parliament could see the emergence of the younger generation of leaders taking an active role in the legislative branch. There is certainly a sense of inclusivity and diversity in parties’ and coalition’s selection of candidates. From a democratic governance perspective, these approaches can be viewed as a positive transformation in Mongolia’s political environment. Of equal importance is the inclusion of thirty-five proposed female candidates amongst the National Coalition’s seventy-five candidates. If 30-40% of elected representatives are female after the election, Mongolia could have the highest proportion of female lawmakers in Asia.
While the 2024 election indicates a deep domestic political transformation it will also have implications for Mongolia’s international relations. Mongolia’s parliament, the State Great Khural, is responsible for producing legal frameworks for Mongolia’s international affairs and dictates how Ulaanbaatar should engage with the rest of the world. Mongolia’s active participation and commitment to various political, economic, and social platforms places Ulaanbaatar on the world stage as a trusted, democratic partner. Thus, it is paramount for Mongolia’s new parliament to maintain and uphold Mongolia’s democratic reputation and strengthen its global ties.
Democracies are constantly under pressure and sandwiched between two authoritarian governments, Mongolia is on the frontline. Next month’s elections highlight the importance of strengthening democracy and good governance in Mongolia.
The 2024 Bertelsmann Stiftung Transformation Index (BTI) rated Mongolia’s democracy status as 5.5 out of 10, ranking 30th out of 137 countries. The BTI assessment for Mongolia included political, economic, and social transformations. In recent years, Mongolia has made positive progress in implementing digital governance and enhancing ties with technologically advanced partners such as Japan, South Korea, India, the United States, Estonia, and France, all in an effort to diversify its mining-dependent economy and attract foreign investment. The amalgamation of these endeavours indicates the nature and strength of Mongolia’s multi-pillared foreign policy, underpinned by its democratic values and tendencies.
From a geopolitical standpoint, Mongolia’s external environment poses a constant challenge for its democracy. Despite the country’s efforts, over the last two decades democracies globally have been in regression while authoritarianism has been on the rise. Increasing authoritarian tendencies through digital surveillance and the rise in oppression of freedom of speech and the free press make it ever-challenging for democracies to survive.
This is partly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the increasingly hostile environment in almost every region of the world. While Mongolia is almost always not directly involved in international conflicts, it is affected by them. Ulaanbaatar has to respond by balancing regional and international relationships while maintaining democracy, stability and economic growth. The upcoming elections will be critically important for Mongolia’s ability to strengthen its democracy, uphold inclusive multi-party governance, and strengthen its multi-pillared foreign policy. The new parliament will decide the future of Mongolia’s democracy and the path the Mongolian people chose to take in the 1990s.
The opinions expressed are those of the contributor, not of the RSAA.